The iceberg model for systems thinking

The Four Levels of the Iceberg 🧊

The model uses the analogy of an iceberg, where only a small tip is visible above the water, while the vast, powerful base lies hidden beneath. It breaks down a problem into four interconnected levels.

Level 1: Events (The Tip - What We See)

This is the most visible level, representing the day-to-day occurrences and problems we react to.

• Question: "What just happened?"
• Examples: A factory closes down, farmers are protesting on the highway, the water level in a well drops.

Level 2: Patterns / Trends

Below the surface, we look for recurring behaviors and trends over time. This level requires a bit more observation and data.

• Question: "What trends have we seen over time?"
• Examples: A specific region experiences seasonal floods every year, market prices for a certain crop crash regularly, and there's a consistent pattern of migration from villages to cities.

Level 3: Systemic Structures

Deeper still are the structures that create the patterns. These are the "rules of the game"—the policies, norms, and physical and social structures that influence behavior.

• Question: "What is causing these patterns?"
• Examples: Agricultural policies that incentivize water-intensive crops, supply chain bottlenecks that cause price crashes, a lack of rural employment opportunities that drives migration.

Level 4: Mental Models (The Base - What We Believe)

This is the deepest and most powerful level. Mental models are the deeply held beliefs, values, and assumptions that keep the entire system in place. They are often unspoken and unexamined.

• Question: "What beliefs and values keep this system in place?"
• Examples: "Economic growth is always good," "Nature is an infinite resource to be exploited," "Farmers are unproductive," "Water is a free resource."

Why the Iceberg Model is Powerful

Using this model helps us move from simply reacting to problems to creating lasting change.

• Shifts Focus: It moves us from reactive problem-solving (dealing with events) to transformative change (addressing structures and mental models).
• Avoids Blame: It shifts the focus from blaming individuals for events to understanding how system design and shared beliefs create the conditions for those events to happen.
• Identifies Leverage Points: By understanding the deeper levels, we can identify the most effective places to intervene in a system to create change.

Exam Tip: You must be able to draw, label, and explain all four levels of the Iceberg Model. The key skill is to apply the model to a given problem (e.g., urban waste management) by identifying the corresponding events, patterns, structures, and underlying mental models.