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Progress isn't Natural- History

The Unevenness and Fragility of Economic Development

The Puzzle of Uneven Global Development

  • The Unfulfilled Promise: Despite the apparent simplicity of the ingredients for market development (openness, institutions, civic norms), rapid economic growth remains concentrated in certain parts of the world.
  • Persistent Regional Disparities: Significant economic divides persist between regions:
    • Global North vs. Global South: Western Europe and North America are generally far more developed than India and Africa.
    • Intra-Regional Disparities: Within continents, stark differences exist (e.g., Western vs. Eastern Europe, the US vs. Mexico, East Asia vs. Southeast/South Asia).
  • The Question of Friction: The central question is what obstacles or "frictions" prevent other regions from replicating the conditions that spurred rapid development elsewhere.

The Fragility of Economic Progress

  • Growth is Not Guaranteed: Even regions currently experiencing rapid economic growth cannot take this progress for granted.
  • Historical Examples of Stagnation: Many economies have experienced periods of rapid growth followed by stagnation or decline.
  • The Case of Russia: The economic trajectory of the Soviet Union, which saw rapid growth at certain times but eventually stagnated, serves as a cautionary example.

The Need for Sustained Effort

  • Triggering vs. Sustaining Development: The initial triggering of market development (as seen in Bangalore's recent growth) does not automatically guarantee long-term success.
  • Nurturing Markets: Sustaining economic progress requires continuous effort from various stakeholders to nurture and develop markets.
  • Maintaining Attractiveness: Markets need to remain attractive to businesses, investors, and workers to ensure continued growth and prosperity, preventing stagnation and fostering long-term convergence with more developed regions.